| 奉莉军，郑 琪，周家俊，郭 浩*，梁勤欧.多情景下浙中城市群建设用地空间扩张模拟[J].海南师范大学学报自科版,2021,34(4):445-452 |
| 多情景下浙中城市群建设用地空间扩张模拟 |
| Simulation of Space Expansion of Construction Land of the MidZhejiang Urban Agglomeration Under the Multi-scenario |
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| DOI：10.12051/j.issn.1674-4942.2021.04.013 |
| 中文关键词: 土地利用模拟 建设用地扩张 情景模拟 ANN-CA 浙中城市群 |
| 英文关键词: land use simulation construction land expansion scenario simulation ANN-CA the mid-Zhejiang urban
agglomeration |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（70773089）；浙江省自然科学青年基金资助项目（LQ21D0100009） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 选取浙中城市群2005、2010、2015和2019年四期土地利用遥感影像，以高程、人口、经 济、距城镇距离等9个影响因素作为驱动因子，基于地理模拟与优化系统（GeoSOS）模拟未来浙中
城市群在惯性发展、经济优先和生态优先情景下建设用地空间扩张情况。结果显示：（1）土地利用
空间模拟结果较好，神经网络-元胞自动机模型（ANN-CA）适用于浙中城市群建设用地空间扩张模
拟；（2）生态优先情景下的研究区土地利用空间格局较惯性发展情景和经济优先情景更适合研究
区建设用地空间规划模拟；（3）生态优先情景下，婺城区、金东区、义乌市、永康市和东阳市作为主
要扩张地区引导浙中城市群建设用地空间扩张，2015—2030年浙中城市群总体建设用地扩张面积
处于增加状态，增长逐渐变缓。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper selected the four phases of land use remote sensing images of mid-Zhejiang urban agglomeration in
2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019, and 9 influencing factors such as elevation, population, economy, and distance from cities and
towns were used as driving factors. Based on the Geo-simulation and optimization systems (GeoSOS), the spatial expansion
of construction land under the scenarios of inertial development, economic priority and ecological priority in the future in
the mid-Zhejiang urban agglomerations were simulated. The results showed that: (1) the land use spatial simulation was
good, and the neural network-cell automaton model (ANN-CA) was suitable for the simulation;(2) The spatial pattern of
land use in the study area under the ecological protection scenario was more suitable for the construction land spatial plan⁃
ning simulation of the study area than the inertial development scenario and the economic priority development scenario; (3) under the economic priority scenario, Wucheng district, Jindong district, Yiwu city, Yongkang city and Dongyang city
were the main expansion cities to guide the spatial expansion of construction land in mid-Zhejiang urban agglomeration.
The overall construction land expansion area of mid-Zhejiang urban agglomeration is increasing from 2015 to 2030, and
the growth rate gradually slows down. |
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