| 程清平,王平,王宇,谭小爱.1971—2014 年广西河池市区气候变化特征分析[J].海南师范大学学报自科版,2016,29(3):304-312 |
| 1971—2014 年广西河池市区气候变化特征分析 |
| Analysis of Characteristics of the Climate Change in Hechi City Proper from 1971 to 2014 |
| 投稿时间：2016-04-03 |
| DOI：10.12051/j.issn.1674-4942.2016.03.20160315 |
| 中文关键词: 河池市区 气温 降水量 日照时数 变化特征 预测 |
| 英文关键词: Hechi city proper air temperature precipitation sunshine duration change characteristics prediction |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41261007） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用河池气象站气温、降水量、日照时数观测数据，文章分析了44 年来河池市区气候变化的趋势和特征，并对未来的变化趋势作了预测. 44 年来河池市区气候变化的趋势主要有：年、夏季和秋季均温上升趋势显著，春、冬季均温呈上升趋势；年降水量和春、夏、秋季降水量呈减少趋势，冬季降水量呈增加趋势；年、夏季、冬季日照时数呈减少趋势，春、秋季日照时数呈增加趋势. 气候变化存在周期性特征：年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季气温均存在23 年的变化主周期，年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季降水量变化主周期分别为23 年、21 年、21 年、26 年和23 年，年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季日照时数存在22～23 年的变化主周期. 过去44 年期间，气候变化的突变特征是：年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季气温均发生显著的突变增加；年和夏季降水量未发生明显突变，春、秋、冬季降水量发生显著的突变减少；年、夏季、秋季和冬季日照时数未发生明显突变，春季日照时数发生显著的突变增加. 通过R/S 分析，对未来的气候变化趋势作出预测：年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季气温和降水量未来变化趋势与过去44 年变化趋势一致；年、春季、夏季和秋季日照时数未来变化趋势与过去44 年变化趋势一致，而冬季则相反. |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the data of Hechi meteorological station（1971—2014a）, we analyze the change characteristics of air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration in the recent 44 years of Hechi city proper and predict the changing trend in the future. The results are as follows: the annual, summer and autumn average temperatures increased significantly, while the
spring and winter average temperatures didn’t increased significantly; the annual-averaged precipitation decreased slightly, the spring, summer and autumn average precipitation decreasing slightly, and the winter average precipitation increasing slightly; the annual average sunshine duration decreased insignificantly, the autumn and spring average sunshine duration increasing slightly, and the summer and winter average sunshine duration decreasing slightly; there is a principal-variation-period of 23a for both the annual and season-average temperature, while the principal-variation-periods for the annual and season-averaged precipitation are 23a, 21a, 21a, 26a and 23a, respectively, and the principal-variation-periods for the annual and season-average sunshine duration are 22~23a; there is a significant sudden increase of the annual and season-average temperatures; there is no sudden change of the annual and the summer-average precipitation, however, there is a significant sudden decrease of the spring, autumn and winter-average precipitation; there is a significant sudden increase of the spring-average sunshine duration. By the R/S analysis, we find, that the changing trends of the annual and season average temperature and precipitation in the future are the same as those in the past 44 years, the changing trends of the annual, spring, summer and autumn-average sunshine duration in the future are the same as those in the past 44 years, and the changing trend of the winter-average sunshine duration in the future is opposite to those in the past 44 years. |
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