| 陈永祥, 庞芯, 来文立.海南岛高温热浪-暴雨复合事件变化特征[J].海南师范大学学报自科版,2026,(1):88-98 |
| 海南岛高温热浪-暴雨复合事件变化特征 |
| Changing Characteristics of the Combined Heatwave and Extreme Precipitation Events in Hainan Island |
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| DOI：10.12051/j.issn.1674-4942.2024.04.012 |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化背景下，复合极端天气事件频发且强度持续加大，对人类生命财产安全构成严重威胁。本研究以典型热带海岛——海南岛为研究区域，基于1973—2023年18个气象站的逐日最高气温和降水量数据，系统识别高温热浪与暴雨共同构成的复合极端事件。采用Copula函数构建高温热浪-暴雨复合事件强度的联合概率分布，进一步量化高温热浪和暴雨对该类复合事件的贡献率。结果表明，1973—2023年海南岛高温热浪事件与暴雨事件发生频率均显著增加，高温热浪-暴雨复合事件的频率与强度亦呈显著增加趋势，且东部地区的增长率高于西部 在联合重现期下，西南地区的高温热浪强度与暴雨强度均处于较高水平 高温热浪对复合事件变化的贡献率普遍高于75%，暴雨普遍低于25%，揭示了高温热浪在驱动此类复合事件中的主导作用。 |
| 英文关键词: 高温热浪 暴雨 复合事件 海南岛 |
| 基金项目:海南省高等学校教育教学改革研究项目（hnjg2024—46）；海南省研究生创新科研课题（Qhys2024—406） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 气候变化背景下，复合极端天气事件频发且强度持续加大，对人类生命财产安全构成严重威胁。本研究以典型热带海岛——海南岛为研究区域，基于1973—2023年18个气象站的逐日最高气温和降水量数据，系统识别高温热浪与暴雨共同构成的复合极端事件。采用Copula函数构建高温热浪-暴雨复合事件强度的联合概率分布，进一步量化高温热浪和暴雨对该类复合事件的贡献率。结果表明，1973—2023年海南岛高温热浪事件与暴雨事件发生频率均显著增加，高温热浪-暴雨复合事件的频率与强度亦呈显著增加趋势，且东部地区的增长率高于西部；在联合重现期下，西南地区的高温热浪强度与暴雨强度均处于较高水平；高温热浪对复合事件变化的贡献率普遍高于75%，暴雨普遍低于25%，揭示了高温热浪在驱动此类复合事件中的主导作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Under the background of climate change, compound extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent and intense, posing severe threats to human life and property. Taking Hainan Island, a typical tropical oceanic island, as the study area, this research identified compound heatwave and extreme precipitation events (CHEPs) based on daily maximum temperature and precipitation records from 18 meteorological stations during 1973—2023. A Copula-based framework was employed to construct the joint probability distribution of CHEP intensity, enabling a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of heatwaves and extreme precipitation to these compound events. The results indicated that both the frequency of heatwave and extreme precipitation events on Hainan Island increased significantly. The frequency and intensity of CHEPs had also showed a significant upward trend, with higher growth rates observed in the eastern region compared to the western region. Under given joint return periods, the southwestern region experienced comparatively higher heatwave and extreme precipitation intensities. Moreover, the contribution of heatwaves to changes in compound events generally exceeded 75%, while that of extreme precipitation was typically below 25%, revealing the dominant role of heatwaves in driving such compound events. |
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