| 曾 冰，徐颖颖.中国省域财政韧性发展的测度评价、地区差异
与动态演进[J].海南师范大学学报自科版,2025,38(1):101-110 |
| 中国省域财政韧性发展的测度评价、地区差异
与动态演进 |
| Measurement Evaluation, Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Provincial Fiscal Resilience Development in China |
| |
| DOI：10.12051/j.issn.1674-4942.2025.01.013 |
| 中文关键词: 省域 财政韧性 指标体系 差异 动态演进 |
| 英文关键词: province fiscal resilience indicator system difference dynamic evolution |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（72163010）；安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目（ACYC2022385） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 财政韧性是当前中国实现高质量发展的重要根基与有力保障。基于2014—2021年31
个省份面板数据，从抵抗力、恢复力、进化力3个维度构建财政韧性评价指标体系，使用熵值法、泰
尔指数、莫兰指数、标准差椭圆等研究方法对中国省域财政韧性的时空分布、区域差异及动态演进
行了探析。研究发现：中国省域财政韧性正逐步提升，但存在较大区域差异，基本按东部、中部、西
部的次序递减；省域财政韧性发展具有显著的空间依赖性，空间依赖程度来回波动；大多数省份都
分布在高-高集聚区和低-低集聚区；中国省域财政韧性发展的总体差异在多数年份呈缩小趋势，
且总体差异主要来源于区域间；整体上全国省域财政韧性空间分布格局较为稳定。据此就财政韧
性的未来发展提出了相关对策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Fiscal resilience serves as a crucial foundation and robust safeguard for China′s pursuit of high-quality development
in the current era. Utilizing panel data from 31 provinces spanning 2014 to 2021, this study established an evaluation system for
fiscal resilience, incorporating dimensions of resistance, recovery, and evolution. Entropy method, Theil index, Moran index and
standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution, regional differences and dynamic simulation
of the financial resilience of China′s provinces. The findings revealed a gradual enhancement in the levels of fiscal resilience
across provinces, but there are significant regional disparities, typically diminishing from east to central to west. Additionally, the
development of provincial fiscal resilience exhibits pronounced spatial dependency, with the degree of this dependency experi⁃
encing fluctuations. Notably, a majority of provinces fall within areas of high-high and low-low agglomeration. Over most of the
years studied, the disparity in fiscal resilience development across China has shown a narrowing trend, with the primary source of
variation stemming from inter-regional differences. Overall, the spatial distribution pattern of the nation′s fiscal resilience re⁃
mains relatively stable. In response, the paper proposes targeted strategies and recommendations to foster the future growth of fis⁃
cal resilience. |
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